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How can we make London’stransport network resilientto climate change?

Presented by Jacquie Berry16/11/10

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Presentation outline

Climate Change Adaptation

Improving the resilience of transport

Futurenet

Other recent work

Conclusions

Climate change resilience in London

TfL reporting under the AdaptationReporting Power

Draft Mayor’s Climate Change AdaptationStrategy

Assessing resilience of assets andoperations

Action plans to improve resilience

Improving the resilience of transport

Determine impact of past weatherevents and identify vulnerabilities

Identify thresholds

Risk assessment – identify likely futureimpacts

Assess adaptation options andprioritise (technical solutions/tailoredasset management)

Implementation and monitoring

Highways Agency’sAdaptation FrameworkModel

Future resilient transport networks

http://www.arcc-futurenet.org.uk/

Project details

EPSRC “Adaptationand resilience toclimate change”(ARCC) programme

Project runs fromJune 2009 to March2013

Six partners led bythe University ofBirmingham

The key questions

What will be the nature of the UK transportsystem in 2050 both in terms of its physicalcharacteristics and its usage?

What will be the shape of the transport networkin 2050 that will be most resilient to climatechange?

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Project scope

Model 2050 transport system taking into account changes ininfrastructure, technology, demographics and climate

Travel demand and users decision making

Transport network as a whole and interactions between modes

Combines expertise on climate, engineering, travel behaviour,geology and hydrology

Outputs will help decision makers improve resilience

London to Glasgow Transport Corridor

High volume of road, rail andair traffic

Large variation in climate

Variety of climate changeimpacts

Strategically important route

Modelling approach

Three levels

-Corridor model

-Integrated models

-Individual failure models

Aimed at different usergroups

Different levels of detail

Data inputs for models

Geology

Topography

Hydrology

Asset information

Traffic flow

Asset data

Liaison with keystakeholders

Location (GPS)

Type of pavement

Slope and height ofembankments

Capacity of culverts

Condition

Vulnerable areas

Identify vulnerable areas

Use past events to predict futureareas of vulnerability

Include:

-diversionary routes

-access to stations, airports,depots, control centres

-contingency plans

Issues identified to-date

Lack of information recorded on past weather events

Accurate and comprehensive asset data often missing

Importance of looking at the wider picture

Difficulties in using maintenance data for assessingresilience

Project 2: Maintaining Pavements in aChanging Climate

Project details

DfT funded project on behalf of the Roads Board

Guidance for local highway engineers on climate changeimpacts on pavements

Sister document to Well-maintained Highways

Accompanying technical report The effects of climate changeon highway pavements and how to minimise them

Climate change impacts on pavements

Used UKCIP02 scenarios to look at how changes in climatevariables would influence deterioration of pavements

Collected case studies of the impacts of past weather events onlocal highways

Performance of different types of pavement materials anddesigns in the climate projected for 2050

Provided advice on improving resilience

Findings

Highway authorities need to assess network vulnerability toclimate change

Use local knowledge of assets and past events to assess risk

Inadequate condition, whether as a result of poor design,construction or maintenance increases risk

Combination of climate and other factors can cause damage

Technical recommendations were given

Project 3: Tyre and Road SurfaceOptimisation for Skid resistanceand Further Effects

http://tyrosafe.fehrl.org/

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Project details

Funded by EC FP7

Objectives

-to prepare for Europeanharmonisation

- to optimise the assessment andmanagement of essential tyre/roadinteraction parameters

Climate change impacts ontyre/road interaction

How optimisation affectsresilience

Skid resistance and climate change

High temperatures

-Fatting up

-Embedment

Intense rainfall

-Aquaplaning

Drier summers

-Increased polishing

-Greater build-up of contaminants

Seasonal weather patterns

-Changes in seasonal variation of skidresistance

Findings

Properties of pavements and tyres vary with temperature andprecipitation affecting tyre/road surface interaction

There are direct and indirect effects of climate change ontyre/road interactions

Optimising for skid resistance, noise and rolling resistance oftenimproves climate change resilience

Conclusions

Better understanding of how climate change impacts affect thenetwork and how this impacts on whole transport network

Futurenet is modelling the future UK transport system relatingdetailed failure models to overall network resilience

DfT technical guidance on the impacts of climate change andadaptation actions

TYROSAFE looked at the impacts of climate change on tyre/roadsurface interaction

Building our knowledge of how climate change affects transportand how to make the network more resilient

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Do YouHave AnyQuestions?

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Thank youRoad2010

Presented by Jacquie BerryDirector– 16/11/10

Tel: 01344 770080Email: jberry@trl.co.uk