Future Agricultures andclimate change:Outline of a new theme
Lars Otto Naess
Thomas Tanner
FAC Annual Review and
Planning Meeting
Brighton, UK
30 March 2010
Climate change and agriculture
•Increased risks from climate change on theagricultural sector
•Changes in the agricultural sector may increasevulnerability of already marginal systems
•New climate change policy developments atinternational level (post-Copenhagen)
•New actors and changing power relations in areas ofclimate change and agriculture
•Diverging views on what are the best options foradaptation
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Adaptation options for agriculture
•Ranges from delivering ‘technical fixes’ in responseto defined changes to supporting ‘climate robust’agriculture and resilient livelihood systems inresponse to an uncertain future
•Agreement of need to address range of areas hideslarge differences in assumptions about climatechange and agriculture, actors’ abilities, and thescope and process for policy adjustment and change
•Different narratives are supported by differentactors, plays out at national and sub-national levels
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Theme research focus
•Core research foci:
1.How international policy developments on adaptationplay out at the national level, and their linkages toagriculture sector goals
2.The use of climate science information and seasonalforecasting in national and sub-national policy processes,as an example of a widespread (yet contested)adaptation support tool
•Linking with other FAC themes:
–Linking the core research closely to (ongoing work andlessons from) other FAC thematic areas
–Development of cross-thematic, co-funded “issue papers”to address particular issues
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Research questions
Main research question: How do international climate change policyprocesses play out in national and sub-national agriculture sector contexts?
Sub-questions:
•Which international policy developments set the premises for agriculturaladaptation?
•What are national governments ‘room for manoeuvre’? What are the keypolicy spaces?
•Which are the key narratives and actors underlying climate adaptation?How do these relate to national development goals?
•To what extent does adaptation research influence national level policymaking?
•To what extent does local experience and practice inform policy at thenational level?
•What are the main actors and their interests in the production and use ofclimate information, and what are their roles in policy formation?
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Planned activities 2010-2011
April-July 2010:
–Identify research partners in Kenya and Ethiopia
–Roundtables, literature review and scoping study to determine detailed focus
–Initial discussion of joint papers with other themes, publication of web story
–Project monitoring and evaluation
August-November 2010:
–In-country research (interviews, group discussions, documentary review)
–Finalisation of project summary and web story ahead of COP-16
–Finalisation and peer review of first draft of report
December 2010-April 2011
–Second round of interviews and documentary review
–Development of draft policy briefs
–Drafting of joint issue papers and policy briefs with other themes
April-September 2011
–Finalisation of Kenya and Ethiopia studies and policy briefs
–Presentation of results online and at international conferences
–Scoping for further countries, themes
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Key outputs
•Case studies in Ethiopia and Kenya
•Country policy briefs
•Journal articles
•Presentations at workshops and conferences (COP-16)
•Web stories various websites
•Issue papers and policy briefs on overlapping areaswith other FAC themes
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Outcomes and indicators
Outcomes:
•Increased realisation of the importance of policy process analysis
•An expanded group of policy experts engaging with climate changeissues
•Increased focus on local-national linkages in adaptation policy making
•Increased understanding of linkages between post-Copenhageninvestments and policy processes in the agricultural sector
Indicators of success:
•Improved integration between agriculture in climate change in policydocuments
•Increased openness about assumptions about climate change inclimate change and agriculture policy documents (new)
•Increased number of policy dialogues between key actors involvedwith climate change and agriculture development
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Integration of gender and socialinclusion
•Gender-specific impacts of climate change
•Gender roles are changing within and amonghouseholds with implications for vulnerability ofagriculture to climate change
•Need gender-sensitive policies for adaptation,considering women and men’s different knowledgeand household roles
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CAADP engagement strategies
•Does climate change challenge the feasibility of projectedgrowth in agricultural productivity contained in CAADPobjectives?
•To what extent may CAADP drive responses to climate changein the agricultural sector?
•Linkages to CAADPs pillars
–Land & water management: effects of land policies on ability to adapt
–Market access: the role of markets for adaptation
–Food supply and hunger: policy change in line with farmers’preferences?
–Agricultural research: improved research – farmer partnerships
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Thank you
l.naess@ids.ac.uk
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Adaptation and development: A continuum
Vulnerability
Impacts
Focus
Addressing the Driversof Vulnerability
Improving fundamentalfactors to reducevulnerability to povertyand harm, with limiteddirect attention to climatefactors, e.g. health,education, women’srights, accountability.
Building ResponseCapacity
Building robust systemsfor problem solving forboth climate and nonclimate related activities,e.g. communications andplanning processes,weather monitoring, andnatural resourcemanagement practices.
Climate RiskManagement
Integrating climateinformation into decisionsto reduce negative effectson resources andlivelihoods, e.g. disastermanagement, drought-resistant crops, “climate-proofing” infrastructure.
Confronting ClimateChange
Focusing almostexclusively on climatechange impacts, typicallytargeting climate risksthat are outside historicclimate variability, e.g.tackling sea level rise orglacial lake floods.
ODA
UNFCCC
International funding
Uncertainty, indeterminacy, ignorance
Risk
Knowledge of climate change
Approach
Discrete Adaptation
Climate resilient development
Tanner and Mitchell, 2008; McGray et al 2007
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Adaptation and development: A continuum
Addressing the Driversof Vulnerability
Improving fundamentalfactors to reducevulnerability to povertyand harm, with limiteddirect attention to climatefactors, e.g. health,education, women’srights, accountability.
Building ResponseCapacity
Building robust systemsfor problem solving forboth climate and nonclimate related activities,e.g. communications andplanning processes,weather monitoring, andnatural resourcemanagement practices.
Climate RiskManagement
Integrating climateinformation into decisionsto reduce negative effectson resources andlivelihoods, e.g. disastermanagement, drought-resistant crops, “climate-proofing” infrastructure.
Confronting ClimateChange
Focusing almostexclusively on climatechange impacts, typicallytargeting climate risksthat are outside historicclimate variability, e.g.tackling sea level rise orglacial lake floods.
Different narratives, with different actors and interests:
Key challenges: mapping and understandingchanging vulnerabilities
Adaptation an issue of increasing agriculture’sresilience and ability to change, and enablingagency of farmers (institutions, socialdifferentiation)
Key challenges: improvingprojections and mapping of impacts
Adaptation an issue of applying newmixes of technologies, “getting thingsright” (drought-resistant varieties)
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