ANALYSING EXPLANATORY FACTORSFOR HOUSEHOLD LEVEL TRIPGENERATION MODELLING
GEO 6166 | TERM PROJECT
NIKHIL MENON
SPRING 2014
A CASE STUDY OF THE NETHERLANDS
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INTRODUCTION
•BACKGROUND:
▫Trip generation –> first step in the conventionalfour – step transportation forecasting process.
▫Output: number of trips originating / destinedfrom/ to a traffic analysis zone – usuallyresidences (Household level).
▫Application: widely used for forecasting traveldemand models.
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INTRODUCTION
•PROBLEM STATEMENT
▫Analyzing the explanatory factors that govern tripgeneration at a household level.
▫Main factors could include
household structure and family size
income
vehicle ownership
availability of public transit system
residential location
presence or absence of children
number of working individuals in the household etc.
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DATA SOURCE AND STUDY AREA
•NATIONAL HOUSEHOLD TRAVEL SURVEYOF THE NETHERLANDS (1998)
▫Modified for the purpose of the study
•THE NETHERLANDS:
▫Total area: 16,039 sq mi (1/4 th of Florida)
▫Population: 16,819,595 (2014 est)
▫Population density: 1050/ sq mi
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Telegraph, 2012
Internations
Wikipedia, 2014
MODEL VARIABLE INFORMATION
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MODEL VARIABLE INFORMATION
•INTERACTION VARIABLES
▫Checking for the simultaneous influence of twovariables on trip generation.
▫Income (Low, medium and high) is used as asource of interaction with the other independentvariables.
▫Summary:
Dependent Variable: 1
Independent Variables: 31 (10+ 21 interactionterms)
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MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION ANALYSIS
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•significance values in parentheses
• = 0.05.
CONCLUSIONS
•KEY FINDINGS
▫Positive influence on trip generation induced byhhsize, nworker, ncar, income.
▫Negative influence on trip generation induced bynchild, resloc.
•POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENTS
▫Additional variables that enhance the model – (foreg.) presence or absence of a public transit system,roadway LoS, time of day, congestion tax etc.
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DISCUSSION
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LifeFoc