HiRAD: A Real-Time System toEstimate Weather Conditions atHigh ResolutionHiRAD: A Real-Time System toEstimate Weather Conditions atHigh Resolution
Presented to theWG/WIST …
June 7, 2006
HiRAD is a system to deriveaccurate, high-resolutionsurface weather observations
Uses multiple inputs,including in situ and remotesensors
Sensible weather estimatesare central to the system
Phase II and III operational atTWC
On Local on the 8’s andweather.com
HiRAD SummaryHiRAD Summary
HiRAD SystemHiRAD System
Estimate 2
Estimate 1
Final Wx
Estimate
Post
Processing
RadarRadar
Calibration &
Combination
Radar
Fingerprinting
LightningLightning
RUCRUC
2.5 -km
Downscaling
Satellite Data
Corrections
with recent obs
Climo Data
SurfaceObservations
HIRADHIRAD
Operational today @ 10,000sites
2.5 km resolution griddedversion is operational andflowing to MET systems
Observations updated every 20min; processing in 5 min’s orless.
Gridded data soon available onmany platforms
These samples are phase IIIgridded data
Operational SystemOperational System
81 Tiles running on 33 AMD dual-core server farm:81 Tiles running on 33 AMD dual-core server farm:
2.5 km Grid intersections in metro DC 2.5 km Grid intersections in metro DC
National Scale ExamplesNational Scale Examples
HiRAD Local ExamplesHiRAD Local Examples
Front Range Chinook
Lake Effect Snows
DDEQC Schematically..DDEQC Schematically..
DEC-05 DDEQC statistics for allMETAR ICAO’s used within HiRAD
SiteVarStdErrScaling
KATLT3.74F 2.5
KATLTd2.90F 2.5
KATLU4.12 mph 3.0
KBOST… etc…
METAR (LDM/NOAAPort) Feed
KLWD 221953Z AUTO 04005KT 4SM BR OVC001 M01/M02 A3029 RMK AO2 SLP272 T10061017 TSNO $=
KMLU 221953Z 34006KT 10SM -RA BKN006 BKN010 OVC016 08/07 A3011 RMK AO2 CIG 003V007 SLP196 P0016 T00780067=
KODX 221953Z AUTO 01004KT 10SM CLR 00/M06 A3032 RMK AO2 SLP294 T00001061=
KSPS 221952Z VRB03KT 10SM FEW018 SCT060 BKN100 10/M01 A3021 RMK AO2 SLP230 T01001006 $=
K9V9 221952Z AUTO VRB03KT M03/M10 A3035 RMK AO2 SLP301 T10331100 PWINO FZRANO TSNO $=
KTOL 221952Z 04004KT 10SM CLR 03/M05 A3038 RMK AO2 SLP296 T00281050=
DDEQC & other QC Filter
Logic
Rejection/Inspection Log..
ddeqc20060125120507.log
KIPJ(72314038)
DewPoint
1142 UTC
3.200000
26.143440
2.500000
8.000000
NotAvailable(-99999)
ddeqc20060125122505.log
KFQD(72315045)
DewPoint
1200 UTC
3.200000
25.903797
2.500000
8.000000
Sunny(3200)
ddeqc20060125122505.log
KIPJ(72314038)
DewPoint
1202 UTC
3.200000
27.393620
2.500000
8.000000
NotAvailable(-99999)
FAIL?
PASS?
Core HiRADAnalysis
Bad wind gust ..Bad wind gust ..
KEVV 251754Z 27009KT 10SM SCT027 03/M04 A3042 RMK AO2 SLP304 T00331039 10033 21017 50015KEVV 251654Z 32010KT 10SM CLR 02/M04 A3042 RMK AO2 SLP305 T00221044KEVV 251554Z 31010KT 10SM CLR 01/M05 A3041 RMK AO2 SLP301 T00111050 $KEVV 251454Z 32011G142KT 10SM CLR 00/M05 A3037 RMK AO2 SLP289 T00001050 51023KEVV 251354Z 29011KT 10SM CLR M01/M06 A3035 RMK AO2 SLP281 T10061056KEVV 251254Z 29008KT 9SM CLR M01/M06 A3033 RMK AO2 SLP275 T10111056 $
Bad wind speeds orgusts generallyattributed to typos (?),and less toinstrumentation. Theyare rare but oftenegregious.
A typical day in DDEQC ..A typical day in DDEQC ..
On January 25, 2006..
Fairly typical day; i.e. representative of total sample.
Total Observations: 75,781
Flagged/Withheld:141
Hit Ratio0.18%
Unique ICAO43
VariableCount %
T5841.1%
Td7956.0%
U (sust. and gust)4 1.8%
WIST thoughts w.r.t. HiRAD ..WIST thoughts w.r.t. HiRAD ..
Variational assimilation is a powerful technique
Shelters or isolates raw OBS on the input side ..however, single bad observations can now effectareas instead of single points..
Results can be provided as uniform outputs in timeand space (grids)..
Downstream applications need only know theiractual location on the earth’s surface andunderstand how to relate this location to thegridded data.
WIST thoughts w.r.t. HiRAD (cont)WIST thoughts w.r.t. HiRAD (cont)
The sensible weather (present weather, visibility,precipitation type and rate) should receive the lion’sshare of attention
Is it possible to have an equivalent of the NLDN orUSPLN for other weather variables? That is, veryhigh resolution and very reliable and accurate, butlow cost and only a sparse network of actualinstruments?
Latency. Start with 0.00 minutes and resist everysecond of time that is added to the total delay andthe resulting time of dissemination.
WIST thoughts w.r.t. HiRAD (cont)WIST thoughts w.r.t. HiRAD (cont)
We fear adding mesonet and other secondary obssources to HiRAD because of bias, reliability, andq/c implications.
The knock on road sensors is reliability and qualitycontrol.
If these obstacles are overcome, it is an extremelyvaluable source of information.
Other gee-whiz sources must be demonstrated tobe reliable, robust, and unbiased. Even 1% errorrates are unacceptable and will eat you alive.