Souces and scenarios for tsunami hazard assessment in the Mediterranean

Sources and scenarios for tsunamihazard assessment in theMediterranean

A very preliminary view

Tsunami Hazard Assessment

•1. Deterministic (usually“credible” worst tsunami,

Tinti and Armigliato, 2003)

•2. Scenario-based assessment

•3. Probabilistic (P for the exceedance of height H in Tyears, e.g. Sørensen et al., 2012) /statistics (size-frequency relations)

All (!) approaches suffer due to

•1. Poor knowledge of mechanisms

•2. Are realistic (?)

•3. Very small ts. catalogs (simulations/syntheticcatalogs is an alternative)

Geotectonic setting(Mascle & Mascle, 2012)

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Tsunamigenic zones(Papadopoulos et al., Mar. Geol., 2014)

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Rupture zones of tsunamigenic earthquakes(Papadopoulos & Papageorgiou, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014)

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Rupture zones of tsunamigenic earthquakes(Papadopoulos & Papageorgiou, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014)

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Seismic criterion for the source: slowness factor(Newman and Okal , 1998)

Earthquake

Seismic moment

Mo x 1027 (dyn.cm)

Slowness

factor, θ

Nicaragua 1992

7.66

3.40

-6.51

Java 1994

7.87

5.30

-5.76

Peru 1996

7.18

2.20

-6.22

Flores Sea 1992

8.07

5.10

-4.58

PNG 1998

6.80

0.37

-5.50

Messina 1908

7.10

0.56

-5.39

Amorgos 1956

7.50

3.90

-4.68

Western Mediterranean:Álvarez-Gómez et al. (2011a) selected various worst caseseismogenic faults

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Western Mediterranean:Álvarez-Gómez et al. (2011a) selected various worst caseseismogenic faults and calculated maximum wave elevation maps and tsunamitravel times

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Western Mediterranean:Iglesias et al. (2012) presented a reasonable present-day, sea-levelhighstand numerical simulation and scenario for a tsunami excited by ahypothetical landslide with the characteristics of the pre-historic BIG’95debris flow occurring on the Ebro margin about 11500 cal yr BP

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Strategies for developing database ofpre-simulated tsunami scenarios

1.Discretization of a given “tsunamigenic domain” with sourcesdistributed on a regular grid of cells, independently on thetsunami history. Tsunami scenarios are computed for each grid celland for different EQ magnitudes starting from “standard” tsunamiinitial conditions (practice by Global Disasters Alerts &Coordination System, JRC, Ulutas et al., 2012).

1.The second approach applies when sound hypotheses on tectoniclineaments and/or specific active and potentially tsunamigenicfaults can be made: “source-based” approach: the fault areas aretessellated with elementary faults of suitable extension and withfocal mechanism coinciding with that of the parent source area.(e.g adopted by the NOAA Tsunami Research Center “Short-TermInundation Forecast” (SIFT) operational tool).

NEARTOWARN Project: “source-based” approachapplied by UNIBO

Cyprus

Rhodes