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Robert Kellogg
NRCS, Beltsville
Results and Lessons Learned onRegional/National Modeling Efforts:Conservation Effects AssessmentProject (CEAP)
Why do we do large-scale regionalmodeling and assessment?
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Why do we do large-scale regionalmodeling and assessment?
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To provide information in support of policydevelopment or management of governmentprograms.
Why do we do large-scale regionalmodeling and assessment?
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To provide information in support of policydevelopment or management of governmentprograms.
•How big is the problem?
•What has already been accomplished?
•What is left to do, and where?
•What can be expected if specific actions aretaken?
•What is the most cost-effective approach?
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1.Describe study and findings
2.Challenges in developingand presenting results
3.Lessons learned
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Goals of the CEAP CroplandNational/Regional Assessment
Define and evaluate practices in use
Estimate the effects/benefits of conservationpractices in use
Estimate the need for additionalconservation practices
4.Simulate effects/benefits of additionaltreatment
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Cropland Regional Assessments
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Sampling and Modeling Approach
Farm surveydata at
NRI-CEAPsamplepoints
Field-levelmodelingAPEX
WatershedmodelingHUMUS/SWAT
Onsite(field-level)Effects
Off-SiteWaterQualityEffects
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PrimarySample Unit(PSU)PrimarySample Unit(PSU)
Points
Statistical Design
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Modeling Strategy
Estimate a CEAP Baselineusing farmer surveyinformation at NRI samplepoints
2.Construct an alternativescenario assuming “nopractices”
Difference between these two scenarios represents thebenefits of the accumulation of conservation practicescurrently in place on the landscape.
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47-year minimum-maximum precipitation
Evaluation of ConservationPractices
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The Baseline Conservation Condition
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Soil erosion control
UpperMiss.
Ches.Bay
GreatLakes
Structural practices forwater erosion control
-- All acres
-- HEL acres
45%
72%
46%
63%
26%
37%
Tillage
-- No till
-- Mulch till
28%
63%
48%
40%
32%
50%
The Baseline Conservation Condition
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Nitrogen application forall crops in rotation
UpperMiss.
Ches.Bay
GreatLakes
Appropriate rate
39%
32%
40%
Appropriate timing
45%
54%
69%
Appropriate method
56%
35%
50%
Appropriate rate and timingand method
16%
12%
18%
No nitrogen applied
2%
3%
4.5%
The Baseline Conservation Condition
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Nutrient application for allcrops in rotation
UpperMiss.
Ches.Bay
GreatLakes
Appropriate rate and timingand method for bothnitrogen and phosphorus,including acres with noapplications
13%
9%
12%
Cover crops
<1%
4%
1%
Losses of Sedimentand Nutrients from Fields
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Sediment Loss (tons/acre), Baseline
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Nitrogen Loss (pounds/acre), Baseline
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Nitrogen Loss in Subsurface Flows, Baseline
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Means:
CB = 32.7 pounds/A
UM = 18.7 pounds/A
GL = 25.8 pounds/A
Inherent Vulnerability
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UM
CB
GL
Avg. annual precipitation (inches)
34
42
34
Percent of cropped acres withslopes>2%
42%
60%
34%
Percent of cropped acres that areHEL
18%
44%
17%
Percent of cropped acres highlyprone to surface water runoff
13%
23%
6%
Percent of cropped acres prone toleaching
9%
46%
30%
Conservation Treatment Needs
•Under-treated acres were identified asthose with an imbalance between the levelof potential loss—inherent vulnerability—and the level of conservation treatment.
•Acres were assigned to three levels ofneed for additional treatment—HighModerate, and Low
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Average annual loss of nitrogen insubsurface flows, GL--pounds/acre/yr
Soil leaching
potential
Lowtreatment
Moderatetreatment
Moderatelyhightreatment
Hightreatment
Low
25
22
9
7
Moderate
43
30
12
10
Moderatelyhigh
61
47
15
11
High
54
57
33
16
Acres Needing Conservation Treatment
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Average annual loss of nitrogen insubsurface flows, GL--pounds/acre/yr
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Average annual loss of nitrogen insubsurface flows, GL--pounds/acre/yr
High conservation treatment need fornitrogen and/or phosphorus loss
Challenges in developing andpresenting results
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Challenges in developing andpresenting results
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1.Evolution of models
Challenges in developing andpresenting results
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1.Evolution of models
2.Establishing believability
Challenges in developing andpresenting results
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1.Evolution of models
2.Establishing believability
3.Simplicity versus complexity
Challenges in developing andpresenting results
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1.Evolution of models
2.Establishing believability
3.Simplicity versus complexity
4.Forecasting…and meeting…reportpublication deadlines
Challenges in developing andpresenting results
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1.Evolution of models
2.Establishing believability
3.Simplicity versus complexity
4.Forecasting…and meeting…reportpublication deadlines
5.Presentations
Challenges in developing andpresenting results
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1.Evolution of models
2.Establishing believability
3.Simplicity versus complexity
4.Forecasting…and meeting…reportpublication deadlines
5.Presentations
6.Peer review
Lessons Learned…
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1.Define clearly at the start the kinds ofstatements you will be including in yourreport, as well as what you will NOTaddress…
•Write up preliminary results and present tousers of the information early and often.
•Don’t wait for the modeling to be completedbefore drafting.
•Try to manage expectations of your audience.
Lessons Learned…
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2.Involve a team of subject-area experts fromdifferent disciplines...
But discuss the project as a group frequently tokeep all on the same page.
Lessons Learned…
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3.Modeling decisions are NOT independent fromthe presentation of results…
Discuss assumptions and methods as a team toconfirm that the “messages” in the report areconsistent with modeling assumptions,
and vice versa
Lessons Learned…
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4.If “off-the-shelf” databases are fundamentallyinappropriate for answering the questions,don’t try to “make do”…
Collect the data you need.
Lessons Learned…
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5.Models and databases will always bemodified and refined…
You will have to do everything over more thanonce—plan on it.
Lessons Learned…
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6.If your results appear to be new scientificfindings, you are probably doing somethingwrong…
Regional modeling is primarily a synthesis ofscientific knowledge and understanding.
Lessons Learned…
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7.Document…document…document
•Establishes believability.
•Avoids mis-use of the findings.
•Explain why you chose a method/assumption,and why alternatives were not chosen.
•Prepare documentation reports as yougo…don’t wait until the end.
Lessons Learned…
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8.Consider keeping the technical reportseparate from other communicationproducts designed specifically to focus onmessages.
9.Be patient with your audience.
Lessons Learned…
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10.Avoid an open public review of a draftreport.
Lessons Learned…
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10.Avoid an open public review of a draftreport.
11.Don’t get into a “model war” with eitherEPA or USGS.