Slide 1

Presentation Title

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

Sea Level Rise andExtreme Events

Bangkok, October 2012

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

Climate Change Projected to Cause SeaLevels to Rise

•Warmer seas will expand (IPCC 2007)

–Likely effect 40-100 cm by 2100

•Melting ice on land can also raise sea levels(IPCC 2007)

•Big concern is Greenland which could causesea levels to rise several meters

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

Primary Impact is Coastal Infrastructure

•Rising seas will inundate coastalinfrastructure and coastal land

– Primary loss is infrastructure

•Adaptations

–Soft and dynamic ecosystems based responses

–Move infrastructure inland

–Build hard structures (walls) to protect

–Raise structures

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

Economic Analysis

•Comparing value of lost infrastructure (inundation)with cost of protection (sea walls), economicanalysis suggests it is worthwhile protecting denseurban developments (Yohe et al 1996)

•Economic, environmental and social costs/benefitsof rural lands will need to be examined; potentialtrade offs in protecting urban/rural land; equityissues

•Faster SLR, earlier adaptation needed and morefrequent and more costly improvements

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

Example: Location with High Economic ValueInfrastructure/Low economic value lands

•Compare value lost from inundation to costof sea walls

•Examine urban buildings, beaches, marshes,and mangroves

•Suggests worth protecting buildings and highvalued beaches

•Not worth protecting low valued beaches,marshes, and mangroves if sea level riseover 0.6m

Singapore Urban SLR in 2100(Ng and Mendelsohn 2005)

SLR=0.2m

SLR=0.5m

SLR=0.9m

LandInundated

(km sq)

4.0

9.7

17.0

Benefit ofProtection

(million USD)

3,800

9,200

29,100

Cost ofProtection

(million USD)

303

Beach Protection Singapore(Ng and Mendelsohn 2006)

Sea LevelRiseScenario by2100

Year ofAction

Years ofProtection

BenefitWTP

(millionUSD)

Benefit

Travel Cost

(millionUSD)

Cost

(millionUSD)

0.2m

2080

5,400

81,200

0.5m

2060

4,000

60,800

0.5m

2080

13,100

199,300

0.9m

2020

2,800

43,100

0.9m

2060

5,200

79,200

0.9m

2100

11,500

175,000

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

Extreme Events

•Storms: tropical cyclones, extra tropicalstorms, thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail

•Extremes: flooding, drought, heat waves,cold spells

•Lead to economic damages (USD) anddeaths

•Climate change may exacerbate impacts

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

Projecting Changes in Extreme EventOutcomes

•As GDP and populations increase, thedamages from many extreme events willincrease- more in harm’s way

•As income increases, deaths are likely to fall-society and people take precautions

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

Asian Damages in 2010 and2100 (million USD/yr)

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

Asian Annual Deaths in 2010 and 2100

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

•Unclear how climate change will alter localstorms

•Higher temperatures and precipitation willincrease mean values

•Unclear how climate change will alter thedistribution of precipitation and temperaturearound the new mean

•Some evidence that intensity of tropicalcyclones will increase

Projecting Climate Change Impact onExtreme Events

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

•Examine 4 climate models in 2100

•Examine how climate scenarios affecttropical cyclones

•Calculate damage per cyclone

•Estimate change in damage

Tropical Cyclones

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

Change in Tropical Cyclone Power byOcean Basin

$C:\Users\Kerry\Documents\Papers\World Bank\fig2_new.png$

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

Estimate Climate Impacts

•Calculate future baseline damages (currentclimate)

•Calculate future damages with future climate

•Subtract baseline from future damages withfuture climate to get net climate impact

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

Climate Change Damages in AsiaFrom Tropical Cyclones in 2100 Billion USD/yr

CNRM

ECHAM

GFDL

MIROC

Damage

(% GDP)

2.8

(0.14%)

23.9

(1.18%)

5.2

(0.25%)

51.3

(2.50%)

Deaths

(per million)

757

(0.15)

-1436

(-0.29)

-3356

(-0.67)

1162

(0.23)

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

Increased Intensity

•Not clear that the frequency of tropicalcyclones will change

•Some support for increasing intensity oflargest storms

•Currently, 10% worst storms cause 90% ofdamage from tropical cyclones

•With climate change, 10% worst storms maycause 93% of damage

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

Climate change increases frequencyof high damage storms

$C:\Users\Kerry\Documents\Papers\World Bank\GFDL_limited.tif$

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

Conclusions SLR

•Moderate sea level rise is extremely likelybut can be relatively cheaply adapted to overtime

•Sea level rise from 2-5 meters, although lesslikely, would be more difficult to manage andwould require a combination of defense andretreat

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

Conclusions-Extreme Events

•Frequent small storms are reasonably easyto manage with early warning systems andmoderate precautions (building codes, hardstructures)

•Cat 4-5 tropical cyclones are more difficult

–Costly to protect against powerful storm

–Low benefit since they occur locally only once in100 or 1000 years

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation

Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action

Extreme Events Continued

•Food aid has been a very successfuladaptation to droughts reducing deathsdramatically

•Deaths from most extreme events are fallingas countries get wealthier