ACM 97
The Next 50 Years
of Networking
Vinton G. Cerf
Senior VP,
Internet Architecture,MCI
ACM 97
ACM 97ACM 97
THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTINGTHE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING
ACM 97
ACM 97ACM 97
Copyright 1997 ACM, Association for ComputingCopyright 1997 ACM, Association for Computing
The files on this disk or server have been provided by ACM. The files distributed by this server have beenprovided by ACM. Copyright and all rights therein are maintained by ACM. It is understood that all personscopying this information will adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by ACM’s copyright. These worksmay not be reposted without the explicit permission of ACM. Reuse and/or reposting for noncommercialclassroom use is permitted. Questions regarding usage rights and permissions may be addressed to:permissions@acm.orgThe files on this disk or server have been provided by ACM. The files distributed by this server have beenprovided by ACM. Copyright and all rights therein are maintained by ACM. It is understood that all personscopying this information will adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by ACM’s copyright. These worksmay not be reposted without the explicit permission of ACM. Reuse and/or reposting for noncommercialclassroom use is permitted. Questions regarding usage rights and permissions may be addressed to:permissions@acm.org
THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTINGTHE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING
ACM 97
James BurkeJames Burke
Master of CeremoniesMaster of Ceremonies
ACM 97
VINT CERF
ACM 97
ACM 97
ACM 97
ACM 97
ACM 97
Fax, Television - Long MaturationFax, Television - Long Maturation
Internet Takes 20+ YearsInternet Takes 20+ Years
Internet Driven From OutsideInternet Driven From Outside
–Gopher, WWW–Gopher, WWW
–Internet Telephony, Java–Internet Telephony, Java
Sigrid’s Cochlear ImplantSigrid’s Cochlear Implant
And Everything HappensOvernightAnd Everything HappensOvernight
ACM 97
Interworking of TelephonyServices With the InternetInterworking of TelephonyServices With the Internet
–Interweaving of Two GreatNetworks of the 20th Century–Interweaving of Two GreatNetworks of the 20th Century
Network Independent ServicesNetwork Independent Services
“internet telephony” asinadequate as “horselesscarriage” to describe“internet telephony” asinadequate as “horselesscarriage” to describe
Weaving a New FabricWeaving a New Fabric
ACM 97
Customers Want InteroperabilityCustomers Want Interoperability
Open Standards are RequiredOpen Standards are Required
Interoperability Opens NewApplication PossibilitiesInteroperability Opens NewApplication Possibilities
New Platforms: WWW, Vault,Java, GamesNew Platforms: WWW, Vault,Java, Games
Interoperability Is The KeyInteroperability Is The Key
ACM 97
ACM 97
American “Instant Gratification”American “Instant Gratification”
Telecommuting at Home,Teleplay at Work!Telecommuting at Home,Teleplay at Work!
Micropayments and the PennyNovelMicropayments and the PennyNovel
Johnny’s Mommy and Teacher,Email and the WWWJohnny’s Mommy and Teacher,Email and the WWW
Everything On DemandEverything On Demand
ACM 97
ACM 97
Continuous ConnectionContinuous Connection
“Smart” Scales, refrigerator“Smart” Scales, refrigerator
“Smart” Sensors - ComputerKnows Where it is, When it is,Temperature“Smart” Sensors - ComputerKnows Where it is, When it is,Temperature
Reading Glasses -- 21st C StyleReading Glasses -- 21st C Style
21st Century Microwave Oven21st Century Microwave Oven
Network ImmersionNetwork Immersion
ACM 97
“Telephony”, “Video”, “Radio”Over Internet“Telephony”, “Video”, “Radio”Over Internet
Internet over TV, Radio, SatelliteInternet over TV, Radio, Satellite
Mutual Reinforcement AmongMediaMutual Reinforcement AmongMedia
Paper May Become SpecialtyItemPaper May Become SpecialtyItem
Not Only Human, but ComputerInteractionNot Only Human, but ComputerInteraction
Internet and the MediaInternet and the Media
ACM 97
Pager, Cellular, Laptop, PDA. . .CombinedPager, Cellular, Laptop, PDA. . .Combined
Bodynets - “Hardwear” and“Softwear”?Bodynets - “Hardwear” and“Softwear”?
Net Surfing/Chat and Avoid Ads?Net Surfing/Chat and Avoid Ads?
Speech Recognition - NarrowFocusSpeech Recognition - NarrowFocus
Real Progress -- EasilyProgrammable VCR!Real Progress -- EasilyProgrammable VCR!
Net Potato?Net Potato?
ACM 97
Pager, Cellular, Laptop, PDA. . .CombinedPager, Cellular, Laptop, PDA. . .Combined
Bodynets - “Hardwear” and“Softwear”?Bodynets - “Hardwear” and“Softwear”?
Net Surfing/Chat and Avoid Ads?Net Surfing/Chat and Avoid Ads?
Speech Recognition - NarrowFocusSpeech Recognition - NarrowFocus
Real Progress -- EasilyProgrammable VCR!Real Progress -- EasilyProgrammable VCR!
Net Potato?Net Potato?
ACM 97
Multiparty Gaming CommonMultiparty Gaming Common
Virtual Shopping, Banking &Learning Rapidly EvolveVirtual Shopping, Banking &Learning Rapidly Evolve
Advent of Digital ActorAdvent of Digital Actor
Star Wars: The Special EditionStar Wars: The Special Edition
Digital Characters Appear AcrossVariety of MediaDigital Characters Appear AcrossVariety of Media
The Virtual LifestyleThe Virtual Lifestyle
ACM 97
Not Enough Addresses - IPV6Not Enough Addresses - IPV6
Inadequate Routing - Tag, IPSwitching, CIDR, Flow Mgmt.Inadequate Routing - Tag, IPSwitching, CIDR, Flow Mgmt.
Traffic - Faster FiberTraffic - Faster Fiber
Expense - Competition, Usage-Based PricingExpense - Competition, Usage-Based Pricing
Regulation, Censorship Won’tWork (Gilmore)Regulation, Censorship Won’tWork (Gilmore)
Stumbling Blocks andSolutionsStumbling Blocks andSolutions
ACM 97
More Devices Than People on theInternetMore Devices Than People on theInternet
Computer MediatedCommunication and MemoryComputer MediatedCommunication and Memory
–Alzheimer’s, Vint’s Hard Disk andAlta Vista–Alzheimer’s, Vint’s Hard Disk andAlta Vista
Interaction of Intelligent AgentsThroughout the NetworkInteraction of Intelligent AgentsThroughout the Network
OutcomesOutcomes
ACM 97
PredictionPrediction
I will not live to see whatI will not live to see what
happens in 2047, but Ihappens in 2047, but I
will live to regret thesewill live to regret these
timid future predictions!timid future predictions!