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NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТОRelations OTAN Russie
NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТОRelations OTAN Russie
Lieutenant Colonel Patrick MULLER, FRA-A
Joint Intelligence School, CFIAR
Strasbourg, France
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NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010
Toward a true strategic andmodernised partnershipToward a true strategic andmodernised partnership
Creation of a common space of peace, securityand stability in the Euro-Atlantic areaCreation of a common space of peace, securityand stability in the Euro-Atlantic area
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Corner StoneCorner Stone
Corner StoneCorner Stone
NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
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Corner Stone
Dialogue and cooperation in the field of security with Russia, foundedupon the reciprocal respect of each other’s interests, is one vitalparameter to security.
This dialogue has to be honest, but non naïve, and firm, and able tocreate a both constraining and acceptable structure to Russia and toNATO.
Moreover, only dialogue and cooperation can contribute to bridge the gapbetween NATO and Russia and particularly help moving beyond culturaldifferences, especially in political culture.
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NATO-Russia RelationsOutline
1- On the way to a true strategicpartnership based on common securityinterest ?
2- However still profound disagreements
3- Which ingredients for successful futureNATO-Russia Relations?
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On the way to a true strategic partnershipbased on common security interest?
NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
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End of the “no business as usual”
Foreign Ministers of the NATO-Russia Council(NRC) met in Corfu, Greece, on 27 June 2009
Decision tocooperateon areas ofcommoninterestsDecision tocooperateon areas ofcommoninterests
AfghanistanAfghanistan
CounterterrorismCounterterrorism
Nuclear proliferationNuclear proliferation
PiracyPiracy
Climate changeClimate change
Military cooperationMilitary cooperation
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NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010
Toward a true strategic andmodernised partnershipToward a true strategic andmodernised partnership
Creation of a common space of peace, securityand stability in the Euro-Atlantic areaCreation of a common space of peace, securityand stability in the Euro-Atlantic area
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Upgrading the efficiency of thecouncil
NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20November 2010NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20November 2010
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NATO-Russia RelationsSince 2002, a New Quality
Joint declaration on NATO-Russia Relations:A New Quality, by Russian and Allied headsof state and government, at their summitmeeting in Rome on 28 May 2002.
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NATO-Russia RelationsNATO-RUSSIA COUNCIL (NRC)
The NRC is a mechanism for consultation, consensus-building,cooperation, joint decision, and joint action
In the NRC, Russia and Allies meet as equals and take decisions “at 29”
Principle ofConsensusPrinciple ofConsensus
But no Vetofor RussiaBut no Vetofor Russia
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NATO-Russia RelationsNATO-RUSSIA COUNCIL (NRC)
NRC: a solid structure for resuming /promoting the NATO-Russia relations
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NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010
• NATO-Russia Council• NATO-Russia Council
• Conventional arms control regime in Europe• Conventional arms control regime in Europe
• START• START
• To create the conditions for a world without nuclear weapons,in accordance with the goals of the NPT• To create the conditions for a world without nuclear weapons,in accordance with the goals of the NPT
• Endorsement of the Joint Review of 21st Century CommonSecurity Challenges• Endorsement of the Joint Review of 21st Century CommonSecurity Challenges
• Missile defence; to develop a comprehensive Joint Analysis ofthe future framework for cooperation• Missile defence; to develop a comprehensive Joint Analysis ofthe future framework for cooperation
• Railway transit of non-lethal ISAF goods through Russianterritory• Railway transit of non-lethal ISAF goods through Russianterritory
• Expand the scope of the Project on Counter-NarcoticsTraining• Expand the scope of the Project on Counter-NarcoticsTraining
• Afghan Air Force helicopter fleet : development of an NRCHelicopter Maintenance Trust Fund in 2011• Afghan Air Force helicopter fleet : development of an NRCHelicopter Maintenance Trust Fund in 2011
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NRC Helicopter Maintenance Trust Fund
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Launchedon 2 March2011Launchedon 2 March2011
Maintenance andrepair capacityMaintenance andrepair capacity
To the AfghanAir Forcehelicopter fleetTo the AfghanAir Forcehelicopter fleet
Airlift and air power are essential elements ofthe Afghan counterinsurgencyAirlift and air power are essential elements ofthe Afghan counterinsurgency
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NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010
• NATO-Russia Council• NATO-Russia Council
• Conventional arms control regime in Europe• Conventional arms control regime in Europe
• START• START
• To create the conditions for a world without nuclear weapons, inaccordance with the goals of the NPT• To create the conditions for a world without nuclear weapons, inaccordance with the goals of the NPT
• Endorsement of the Joint Review of 21st Century Common SecurityChallenges• Endorsement of the Joint Review of 21st Century Common SecurityChallenges
• Missile defence; to develop a comprehensive Joint Analysis of the futureframework for cooperation• Missile defence; to develop a comprehensive Joint Analysis of the futureframework for cooperation
• Railway transit of non-lethal ISAF goods through Russian territory• Railway transit of non-lethal ISAF goods through Russian territory
• Expand the scope of the Project on Counter-Narcotics Training• Expand the scope of the Project on Counter-Narcotics Training
• Afghan Air Force helicopter fleet : development of an NRC HelicopterMaintenance Trust Fund in 2011• Afghan Air Force helicopter fleet : development of an NRC HelicopterMaintenance Trust Fund in 2011
• Counter-terrorism (technology to detect explosives, Cooperative AirspaceInitiative, information exchange, Active Endeavour)• Counter-terrorism (technology to detect explosives, Cooperative AirspaceInitiative, information exchange, Active Endeavour)
• Counter-piracy• Counter-piracy
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NRC MR Work Plan 2012
- Logistics
- Combating Terrorism
--Search and Rescue at Sea
- Counter Piracy
--Theatre Missile Defence
- Military Academic Exchanges
NATO-Russia Council Chiefs of Defenceapprove the Work Plan for 2012, 18th January2012
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NATO-Russia RelationsOutline
1- On the way to a true strategicpartnership based on common securityinterest ?
2- However still profound disagreements
3- Which ingredients for successful futureNATO-Russia Relations?
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However still profound disagreements
NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
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NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
“East is East, and West is West, and never thetwain shall meet.”“East is East, and West is West, and never thetwain shall meet.”
Rudyard KiplingRudyard Kipling
??
??
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NATO-Russia Relations
CRISIS
The NATO-Russia crisis is the resultant of the crisisbetween “Russia and the West”, and more particularlybetween Russia and the US.The NATO-Russia crisis is the resultant of the crisisbetween “Russia and the West”, and more particularlybetween Russia and the US.
Profound divergence innational interestsProfound divergence innational interests
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NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
« All over these years Russiahas been put in front of alreadyaccomplished facts: Kosovo,withdrawal from the antimissiletreaty, the deployment ofantimissile sites in neighbouringcountries, or even the endlessenlargement of NATO »« All over these years Russiahas been put in front of alreadyaccomplished facts: Kosovo,withdrawal from the antimissiletreaty, the deployment ofantimissile sites in neighbouringcountries, or even the endlessenlargement of NATO »
Mikhail Gorbatchev, Aug 08,«NovaiaGazeta»Mikhail Gorbatchev, Aug 08,«NovaiaGazeta»
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Threat Perceptions …
“NATO enlargement has created more democraticstability on Russia’s western border than at anytime since Napoleon”.
Ronald D. Asmus
January/February, 2008
“The appearance of a powerful military bloc on ourborders will be taken by Russia as a direct threat tothe security of our country”.
Vladimir Putin
NATO Summit, Bucharest, 2008
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Drawing by Niyaz KarimDrawing by Niyaz Karim
Missile DefenseMissile Defense
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Georgia’s pivotal role in the globalenergy market
Analysis of the current crisis withRussia: a conflict of national interests
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The politically highly charged BTC & SCPpipelines
Analysis of the current crisis with Russia
A conflict of national interests
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Reasons for the Crisis /conflicting national interests
Georgia’s pivotal role
in the global energy market
A key element of US Foreign policy
#
Russia wants Central Asia oil and gas to be exportedvia its own territory
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Russian President’s State-of-the-nationaddress to parliament, 12 Nov 2009
A new security architecture:A new security architecture:
« European Security Treaty » proposed toencompass NATO, OSCE, CSTO « European Security Treaty » proposed toencompass NATO, OSCE, CSTO
Indivisibility of security Indivisibility of security
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Analysis of the crisis with Russia: aconflict of national interests
NATO’s / “Western” points of view
versus
Russia’s points of view
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Threat Perceptions …
“NATO enlargement has created more democraticstability on Russia’s western border than at anytime since Napoleon”.
Ronald D. Asmus
January/February, 2008
“The appearance of a powerful military bloc on ourborders will be taken by Russia as a direct threat tothe security of our country”.
Vladimir Putin
NATO Summit, Bucharest, 2008
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NATO’s / “Western”points of view
Disproportionate use of force
Violation of sovereignty of Georgia
Violation of territorial integrity of Georgia
Humanitarian consequences (IDPs)
Destruction of vital infrastructure
Everything had been planned & calculated for long(“frozen conflict”, Russian citizenship policy)
Concerning the Georgian conflictConcerning the Georgian conflict
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NATO’s / “Western”points of view
conductsa policy of influence on the countries that werein its former empire disrespectfully of theirsovereigntyRussia is a country, not democratic, that conductsa policy of influence on the countries that werein its former empire disrespectfully of theirsovereignty
General reasonsGeneral reasons
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Russia’s points of view
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Russia’s points of view
“Russia wanted to respect the World order, but the Georgianattack…”
“Protection of South Ossetian population”
“Georgia’s irresponsible & criminal regime” (11th Sep 01)
The war was organized by the US
Criminal equipment and training of Georgian troops by theUS
Georgian attack of August with the consent of the US
Not alternative to recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia
Concerning the Georgian conflictConcerning the Georgian conflict
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NATO’s use of force without the consent of the UNSC
Disproportionate use of force
Violation of sovereignty of Serbia
Violation of territorial integrity of Serbia
Humanitarian consequences (IDPs)
Destruction of vital infrastructure
Recognition of Kosovo (planned & calculated for long)
Concerning KosovoConcerning Kosovo
Russia’s points of view
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Russia’s points of view
Chaos of international system (international law)
Another conception of the world
Another civilization
Own original model
Orthodoxy
General reasonsGeneral reasons
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NATO-Russia RelationsOutline
1- On the way to a true strategicpartnership based on common securityinterest ?
2- However still profound disagreements
3- Which ingredients for successful futureNATO-Russia Relations?
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Which ingredients for successful futureNATO-Russia Relations?
NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
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Which ingredients for successful future NATO-Russia Relations?
To understand Russia
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NATO to understandRussia and its identity
The immensity of the Russian territory
The Mongol yoke
Imperial identity
Autocracy , no democratic tradition
Orthodoxy, the Third Rome
The soviet impact
Fear of Encirclement
Need for security
Need to be treated as the equal of the UnitedStates
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Russian President’s State-of-the-nationaddress to parliament, 12 Nov 2009
To restaure Russia’s World Power statusTo restaure Russia’s World Power status
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Russian Minoritiesin Former SovietRepublic &Separatist RegionsRussian Minoritiesin Former SovietRepublic &Separatist Regions
Stalin's policy ofnationalities
The RussianEmpire: multiethnic
LE MONDELE MONDE
The role of History
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Samuel Huntington (1927-2008)
“Clash of Civilizations” thesis
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking ofWorld Order (1996)
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NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
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Russia’s National SecurityStrategy until 2020
« Consolidation of efforts of federal executive bodies, State government bodies …to ensure national security ».
« In a competion for energy resources, it cannot be ruled out that military forcecould be used for resolving the emerging problems ».
« NATO’s eastward expansion is a crucial factor in the relationship with NATO ».
« Russia is prepared to develop relations with NATO … the depth and essence ofwhich will be determined by NATO’s preparedness for taking into account Russia’slegitimate interests …, respecting international law, …, new humanistic purposesand functions ».
« to build a strategic partnership with the USA based on coinciding interests ».
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NATO, to take into accountRussia’s interests?
“The European Union should develop a soft securityconcept, to replace the hard security concept,represented by NATO”
(Adrian Severin, Euro-parliamentarian, Europe-Russia Economic Forum, May 25-27 2009)
=
The new NATO Strategic Concept
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NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010
Toward a true strategic andmodernised partnershipToward a true strategic andmodernised partnership
Creation of a a common space of peace, securityand stability in the Euro-Atlantic areaCreation of a a common space of peace, securityand stability in the Euro-Atlantic area
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Russia, to take into accountNATO’s interests?
Toward a new Russia?Toward a new Russia?
Can Russia change?Can Russia change?
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Russian President’s State-of-the-nationaddress to parliament, 12 Nov 2009
Modernisation of RussiaModernisation of Russia
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Presidential Address of 12 December 2012
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Russia – General features
Largest country in the world
Nuclear power
Wealth of natural and energetic resources
145 millions people (2002 RussianCensus)
Population Growth Rate (2006): -0.39%
Births: 1,476,200 (2006) / Deaths: 2,165,700 (2006)
More than 6 millions inhabitants lost since 1991
A multinational country inhabited byrepresentatives of more than a hundrednationalities and ethnic groups.
Imperial structure
Strategic partnership with …?
Future?
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!!
NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
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NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
Problems of communication between “the West” and RussiaProblems of communication between “the West” and Russia
Different cultures and perceptionsDifferent cultures and perceptions
The NATO-Russia crisis, resultant of the crisis between “Russia and the West”, andmore particularly between Russia and the USThe NATO-Russia crisis, resultant of the crisis between “Russia and the West”, andmore particularly between Russia and the US
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Questions?Questions?
Questions?Questions?
NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО